Predictive GIS-Based Model of Rockfall Activity in Mountain Cliffs   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：6  

Marquínez  J.  Menéndez Duarte  R.  Farias  P.  JiméNez Sánchez  M. 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(3):341-360

Rockfall susceptibility has been analysed in mountain cliffs of the Cantabrian Range, North Spain. The main aim of this analysis has been to build a predictive model of rockfall activity from a low number of environmental and geological variables. The rockfall activity has been quantified in a GIS. The cartographic information used shows the spatial distribution of all the recent talus screes as well as their associated source areas in the rock-slopes. The area relation At/Ar (recent talus scree polygon/source basins) in the rock slopes has been used as the rockfall activity indicator. This relation has been validated in 50 pilot rock-slopes and compared with the relation number of recent rock fragments/source basin, obtained from field work. The environmental factors causing rockfall depend on the rock slope situation, and these are: altitude and sun radiation on the rock cliff. The geological factors considered are: lithology, relative position of the main discontinuities with respect to the topographic surface and two morphologic parameters: the roughness and slope gradient. A logistic regression analysis has been applied to a population of 442 limestone and quartzite rock cliffs. The dependent variable is the rockfall activity indicator, which allows the definition of two classes of rock cliff units: low and high activity. The independent variables are altitude, sun radiation (equinox radiation, summer solstice radiation, winter solstice radiation), slope roughness, slope gradient,anisotropy and lithology. Results suggest that it is possible tobuild a valid cartographic predictive model for rockfall activity in mountain rock cliffs from a limited number of easily obtainable variables. The method is especially applicable in massive rock slopes or in regions with uniform rock mass characteristics.  相似文献   

Hazard Zoning for Landslides Connected to Torrential Floods in the Jerte Valley (Spain) by using GIS Techniques   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Carrasco  R.M.  Pedraza  J.  Martin-Duque  J.F.  Mattera  M.  Sanz  M.A.  Bodoque  J.M. 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(3):361-381

The Jerte Valley is anortheast-southwest tending graben located in the mountainous region of west central Spain (Spanish Central System). Mass movements have been a predominant shaping process on the Valley slopes during the Quaternary. Present day activity is characterized as either `first-time failure' (shallow debris slides and debris flows) or `reactivations' of pre-existing landslides deposits.A delineation of landslide hazard zoningwithin the Valley has been carried out by using the detailed documentation of a particular event (a debris slide and a sequel torrential flood, which occurred on the Jubaguerra stream gorge), and GIS techniques. The procedure has had four stages, which are: (1) the elaboration of a susceptibility map (spatial prediction) of landslides; (2) the elaboration of a map of `restricted susceptibility' in the particular case of slopes that are connected to streams and torrents (gorges); (3) the elaboration of a digital model which relates the altitude to the occurrence probability of those particular precipitation conditions which characterized the Jubaguerra event and (4) the combination of the probability model with the `restricted susceptibility map', to establish `critical zones' or areas which are more prone to the occurrence of phenomena that have same typology as this one.  相似文献   

Geomechanical model for the post-Variscan evolution of the Permocarboniferous–Mesozoic basins in Northeast Germany     

Christian A. Hecht  Christof Lempp  Magdalena Scheck 《Tectonophysics》2003,373(1-4):125

The Permocarboniferous basins in Northeast Germany formed on the heterogeneous and eroded parts of the Variscan orogene and its deformed northern foreland. Transtensional tectonic movements and thermal re-equilibration lead to medium-scale crustal fragmentation, fast subsidence rates and regional emplacement of large amounts of mostly acidic volcanics. The later basin formation and differentiation was triggered by reversals of the large-scale stress field and reactivation of prominent zones of weakness like the Elbe Fault System and the Rhenohercynian/Saxothuringian boundary that separate different Variscan basement domains in the area. The geomechanical behaviour of the latter plays an important role for the geodynamic evolution of the medium to large-scale structural units, which we can observe today in three dimensions on structural maps, geophysical recordings and digital models. This study concentrates on an area that comprises the southern Northeast German Basin, the Saale Basin, the Flechtingen High, the Harz Mountains High and the Subhercynian Basin. The presented data include re-evaluations of special geological and structural maps, the most recent interpretation of the DEKORP BASIN 9601 seismic profile and observations of exposed rock sections in Northeast Germany. On the basis of different structural inventories and different basement properties, we distinguish two structural units to the south and one structural unit to the north of the Elbe Fault System. For each unit, we propose a geomechanical model of basin formation and basin inversion, and show that the Rhenohercynian Fold and Thrust Belt domain is deformed in a thin-skinned manner, while the Mid-German Crystalline Rise Domain, which is the western part of the Saxothuringian Zone, rather shows a thick-skinned deformation pattern. The geomechanical model for the unit north to the Elbe Fault System takes account to the fact that the base of the Zechstein beneath the present Northeast German basin shows hardly any evidence for brittle deformation, which indicates a relative stable basement. Our geomechanical model suggests that the Permocarboniferous deposits may have contributed to the structural stiffness by covering small to medium scale structures of the upper parts of the brittle basement. It is further suggested that the pre-Zechstein successions underneath the present Northeast German basin were possibly strengthening during the Cretaceous basin inversion, which resulted in stress transfer to the long-lived master faults, as indicated for example by the shape of the salt domes in the vicinity of the latter faults. Contrary to this, post-Zechstein successions deformed in a different and rather complex way that was strongly biased by intensive salt tectonic movements.  相似文献   

Can flat-ramp-flat fault geometry be inferred from fold shape?: A comparison of kinematic and mechanical folds     

Heather M. Savage  Michele L. Cooke 《Journal of Structural Geology》2003,25(12):2023-2034

The inference of fault geometry from suprajacent fold shape relies on consistent and verified forward models of fault-cored folds, e.g. suites of models with differing fault boundary conditions demonstrate the range of possible folding. Results of kinematic (fault-parallel flow) and mechanical (boundary element method) models are compared to ascertain differences in the way the two methods simulate flexure associated with slip along flat-ramp-flat geometry. These differences are assessed by systematically altering fault parameters in each model and observing subsequent changes in the suprajacent fold shapes. Differences between the kinematic and mechanical fault-fold relationships highlight the differences between the methods. Additionally, a laboratory fold is simulated to determine which method might best predict fault parameters from fold shape. Although kinematic folds do not fully capture the three-dimensional nature of geologic folds, mechanical models have non-unique fold-fault relationships. Predicting fault geometry from fold shape is best accomplished by a combination of the two methods.  相似文献   

SARS疫情控制的模拟分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

龚建华  孙战利  李小文  曹春香  李小英  钱贞国  周洁萍 《遥感学报》2003,7(3):260-265

应用系统动力学模型，定量地分析“早发现、早隔离、早治疗”措施，对于控制SARS疾病扩散与传播的重要性。结果表明，“得病后入院时间”与“隔离措施强度”对于SARS疫情态势发展，具有很大的敏感性与相关性，其中得病后的患者几时去医院治疗，对于疫情的控制具有更重要的意义。同时应用动力学模型，对北京的SARS疫情进行分时间段的模拟与SARS实施控制因素影响分析，结果表明，2003—04—20以后一段时间内实行的各种控制措施，以及5月1日—5月5日的长假对于北京SARS疫情的控制是非常有效的；而4月27日左右北京市社  相似文献   

Intercomparison of Stratospheric Chemistry Models under Polar Vortex Conditions     

M. Krämer  Ri. Müller  H. Bovensmann  J. Burrows  J. Brinkmann  E. P. Röth  J.-U. Grooß  Ro. Müller  Th. Woyke  R. Ruhnke  G. Günther  J. Hendricks  E. Lippert  K. S. Carslaw  Th. Peter  A. Zieger  Ch. Brühl  B. Steil  R. Lehmann  D. S. McKenna 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2003,45(1):51-77

Several stratospheric chemistry modules from box, 2-D or 3-D models, have been intercompared. The intercomparison was focused on the ozone loss and associated reactive species under the conditions found in the cold, wintertime Arctic and Antarctic vortices. Comparisons of both gas phase and heterogeneous chemistry modules show excellent agreement between the models under constrained conditions for photolysis and the microphysics of polar stratospheric clouds. While the mean integral ozone loss ranges from 4–80% for different 30–50 days long air parcel trajectories, the mean scatter of model results around these values is only about ±1.5%. In a case study, where the models employed their standard photolysis and microphysical schemes, the variation around the mean percentage ozone loss increases to about ±7%. This increased scatter of model results is mainly due to the different treatment of the PSC microphysics and heterogeneous chemistry in the models, whereby the most unrealistic assumptions about PSC processes consequently lead to the least representative ozone chemistry. Furthermore, for this case study the model results for the ozone mixing ratios at different altitudes were compared with a measured ozone profile to investigate the extent to which models reproduce the stratospheric ozone losses. It was found that mainly in the height range of strong ozone depletion all models underestimate the ozone loss by about a factor of two. This finding corroborates earlier studies and implies a general deficiency in our understanding of the stratospheric ozone loss chemistry rather than a specific problem related to a particular model simulation.  相似文献   

用几何光学模型对方向变化和直方图建模(英文)     

ＤａｖｉｄＬ．Ｂ．Ｊｕｐｐ 《遥感学报》1997,(Z1)

森林和林地的图象二向性反射函数是一个统计函数，较之小尺度的树冠，它更多地用于大尺度的均匀覆盖的地块。用航空象片和高空间分辨率扫描仪数据作的图象热点影响研究在小尺度下显示出很大方差，而且，太阳和观测角度的交互变化进一步增加了这种反射各向异性变化的方差并有规律地继续呈现在分辨率低的图象中，这被称作ＢＲＶＦ或二向性反射方差函数。近年来，作为一种解释结构的手段，高分辨率图象的方向性方差和直方图结构越来越受到重视，这方面的数据也越来越多。这项工作是利用图象方差来解释结构问题（Ｓｔｒａｈｌｅｒ和李小文倡导）的一种延伸，并在过去１５年中由众多人员作了大量工作。在树冠尺度下，森林的直方图和二向反射方差函数可以计算出来，这里利用了近似迭代函数来处理这些数据并和数值积分模拟进行了对比，结果显示可对二向性反射方差函数的测量和引入直方图的各向异性进行准确建模。  相似文献   

几何光学冠层反射建模中的光谱分量特征的参数化(英文)     

倪文革  李小文  ＣｕｒｔｉｓＥ．Ｗｏｏｄｃｏｃｋ  ＡｌａｎＳｔｒａｈｌｅｒ 《遥感学报》1997,(Z1)

该文用几何光学与辐射传输混合模型研究不连续植被冠层的几何光学反射模型的四分量（承照树冠、承照地面、阴影树冠、阴影地面）的参数化。用一个修正的均匀介质层路径散射（反射与传输）参数的解析算法估计路径散射参数（反射与传输），其中也考虑了冠层间隙的影响。光谱分量特征是不连续植被冠层的传输与反射，背景反照率，以直射光通量与天空漫射光通量比例的函数。光谱分量特征的模型与在美国缅因州Ｈｏｌａｎｄ采集的针叶林数据吻合。基于ＬｉＳｔｒａｈｌｅｒ几何光学相互遮蔽模型，用参数化的光谱分量特征对老松林和老云杉林的方向反射进行估计，其结果与在不同太阳与观测方向上的ＰＡＲＡＢＯＬＡ测量值匹配得很好。  相似文献   

UNIVERSALITY OF THE LAGRANGIAN VELOCITY STRUCTURE FUNCTION CONSTANT (C0) ACROSS DIFFERENT KINDS OF TURBULENCE     

SHUMING DU 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1997,83(2):207-219

In this paper, we evaluate the Lagrangian velocity structure function constant, C0, in the inertial subrange by comparing experimental diffusion data and simulation results obtained with applicable Lagrangian stochastic models. We find in several different flows (grid turbulence, laboratory boundary-layer flow and the atmospheric surface layer under neutral stratification) the value for C0 is 3.0 ± 0.5. We also identify the reasons responsible for earlier studies having not reached the present result.  相似文献   

试论陆壳增生的两种基本模式及其对比   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

竺国强  程晓敢 《高校地质学报》1997,3(4):411-418

大陆地壳是地球形成演化的必然产物。大陆地壳由不同时代、不同类型、不同规模地体的拼贴而增生；同时已形成的大陆地壳沿着新的断裂分裂、离散而碱小。因此大陆地壳是地体拼贴增生与分裂离散的综合结果。太古代早期，原始陆壳形成后，主要通过环太平洋型与天山型两种基本模式达到陆壳的增生。环太平洋型陆壳增生模式出现于陆块的边缘，由古大陆向大洋方向单向增生，增生年代由老到新，增生地体一般都有较大距离的移置，其增生与板块的俯冲作用密切有关。天山型陆壳增生模式出现在陆块的内部，其形成与陆块的开台作用密切有关，可以但不一定伴随有俯冲作用。当古大陆沿一定方向断裂带分裂、离散。其间形成新的海槽接受碳酸盐岩和正常陆源碎屑沉积物与来自地壳深部或地幔的火山物质。由于壳下应力条件改变，两侧古陆相向运动，海槽中物质受两侧古陆碰撞挤压，形成褶皱造山带，并把两侧的古大陆“焊接”成新的、范围更大的大陆地壳。  相似文献